Most of our lives we spend believing that it is necessary to be right and alone and that this is the position that brings the greatest return. But for investments, all you need to do is be in the flow, along with the majority (of the money, not the people). Preferably, if you arrive before the money, this is the ideal position. Position yourself before and the money pushes you.
Without the shorts you are just a fan, because you only win if the market goes up. Only the possibility of betting against gives you clarity on how to position yourself, with a reduced bias.
Of course, leaving the market gives you a good option to wait for the worst to pass. Even so, nothing compares to the possibility that you can win by betting against.
Investing is about your ability to identify potential trend changes and wait for the signal to reach a point that has a short stop. That's it. Even if you hit only half the time, you will have more chances of winning, considering that your stop is short.
First of all, it is only possible to leverage if your stop is short. And for that, you need to be aware that you are in a region of trend change.
Even if you have the discipline to seek these positions, you may be susceptible to leverage more or less, depending on your risk reading at the time. So it's better to have a standard, for example: 5% 3x for tests within the channel, 25% after confirmation.
For the search for a fund, the same philosophy applies. Increase the proportion of the bet, without wanting to hit the exact amount. If you can't stand the mistake, it's a sign that you can't leverage either. It is more prudent to split the entry, as you may need about three tries to get it right. Better than staying in the all or nothing.
When you're looking for opportunities, it's best to list multiple coins and only opt for those with an ascending bottom. Better to circulate than to try to get it right.
While the hammer may not always appear, sometimes waiting for it is the only reliable reversal sign you can have.
My way of drawing channels changed when I realized that the channels become overlapping, and an internal movement will guide the way in which the signal escapes from the channel.
So you can speculate what the channel breakout would be, betting on a very short stop.
